Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
BACKGROUND In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. METHOD We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. RESULT & CONCLUSION As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
منابع مشابه
Author's response to reviews Title: Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach Authors:
متن کامل
Forecasting the regional distribution and sufficiency of physicians in Japan with a coupled system dynamics—geographic information system model
BACKGROUND In Japan, the shortage of physicians has been recognized as a major medical issue. In our previous study, we reported that the absolute shortage will be resolved in the long term, but maldistribution among specialties will persist. To address regional shortage, several Japanese medical schools increased existing quota and established "regional quotas." This study aims to assist polic...
متن کاملThe Dilemma of Physician Shortage and International Recruitment in Canada
The perception of physician shortage in Canada is widespread. Absolute shortages and relative discrepancies, both specialty-wise and in urban-rural distribution, have been a daunting policy challenge. International Medical Graduates (IMGs) have been at the core of mitigating this problem, especially as long as shortage of physicians in rural areas is concerned. Considering such recruitment as h...
متن کاملAddressing the physicians’ shortage in developing countries by accelerating and reforming the medical education: Is it possible?
Introduction: Doctors’ shortage has remained a concernworldwide. The developed countries started aids to recruitinternational medical graduates (IMG) to cope with the defectsthat the health care system suffers from; however, this solution maynot work in developing countries that have a limited resource andpoor budget to spend on the health care system. This study aimsto present an alternative w...
متن کاملDynamic Thinking Approach of Non-medical Use of Pharmaceutical Opioids
The unsteady increase in using pharmaceutical opioids is a phenomenon that has existed in human societies for a long time. Furthermore, the ever-growing trend of addiction to opioids affects communities in various economic, social, and cultural aspects. Since abusing pharmaceutical opioids is a complex dynamic problem, it is extremely difficult to recognize the factors influencing this abuse. T...
متن کامل